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Trail Bites: The Final Days of this Campaign Could Mean Everything

US-VOTE-POLITICS-TRUMP

Photo: ANGELA WEISS / AFP / Getty Images

By Chris Ryan

The final week of this campaign has yet to be defined, but if the past few days are any indication, buckle up.

The determining factor of this race with swing states showing razor thin margins is this, what will the defining narrative be of the next 120 hours and who will it focus on?

So far we've had a roast comedian grab the news cycle with a racist set, and a response by President Joe Biden which may have resulted in him losing his internet privileges after labeling Trump supporters "garbage" before a tweet came out claiming he had just meant the aforementioned comedian.

Harris appears to be focused on three main things. 1.) Make the final days a referendum on Trump. 2.) Lay out some more clear messaging on what her administration will seek to accomplish, and how she'll be different than Biden. 3.) Hit your targeted messaging with key GOTV demos in swing states, i.e. African-American males, suburban women, and close the latino gap.

I'm not 100% sure what Trump's strategy is at this point, other than Trump being Trump.

There's been a conventional wisdom that's permeated media coverage than the former President holds a slim lead over the Vice President, and I largely agree with that.

However, I've sensed a slight shift over the last week and have some questions about the validity of the polling data as the potential exists there has been an overcorrection in sampling to "find" Trump voters after the miscalculations of 2016 and 2020.

I've been surprised about what Trump's schedule has looked like, as they've invested resources in expanding the map (New Mexico, New York ?!?) as opposed to just pounding the pavement in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, etc. This has reminded me a bit of the Hillary Clinton missteps of 2016.

Shapiro Stumps in NH

New Hampshire hasn't been in the mix this cycle as much as year's past, but we have seen some action. But, almost all of it has been on the democratic side of the aisle and has largely focused on the Governor's race.

On Wednesday, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro had multiple events in the state, including a Concord event with Craig.

In addition to the stops from Shapiro, who was the runner-up to be Harris's VP choice, we've seen President Biden, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.

The Final Governor's Debate

Former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig are engaged in a very tight, somewhat personal race to be New Hampshire's next Governor.

It seems that Ayotte has a slim 2-4% lead in the polls over Craig as they debate Wednesday evening at 8pm on WMUR.

In previous lower profile debates Craig has sought to engage Ayotte, by forcefully repeating the messaging from her ads, while Ayotte has largely sought to avoid confrontation with Craig.

A key for Craig is to engage Ayotte to try to create a viral moment that she can push in the final days of this campaign.

Both candidates will look to speak to NH's vaunted "ticket-splitters", and whoever is more convincing will win this race.

Chris Ryan is the host of New Hampshire Today on iHeart NH's news/talk stations from 6-9a weekdays. His "Trail Bites" column drops each Wednesday afternoon.


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