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Trail Bites: Small Lead Could Equal Big Problems for Ayotte in Her Gov Bid

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Photo: MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Images

By Chris Ryan

A small lead could equal big problems for Kelly Ayotte in her bid to become New Hampshire’s Governor.

I’ll be honest, few things surprise me in politics these days, but when the St Anselm College poll dropped and Ayotte only led former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig by 3% (46-43), it caught my attention.

Here’s why:

-Ayotte has been running ads targeting Craig for weeks while Joyce was locked in the most brutal Governor’s primary I could remember with Cinde Warmington.

-Outside groups have targeted Ayotte’s past votes and statements on abortion, but Ayotte and Warmington’s focus on Craig’s record in Manchester has been sustained and focused for three weeks.

-Morse’s campaign against Ayotte in ads largely focused on how she wasn’t conservative/Trumpy enough, thus making her shift to the general election easier.

However, the favorability numbers were really interesting. Ayotte is underwater at 45% unfavorable to 50% favorable, with only 5% unsure. Craig is still really undefined with a 37-36% split and 27% up in the air.

The Ayotte favorability numbers are really interesting. New Hampshire voters crave ‘authenticity’.

Her candidacy reminds me of an SNL skit with Mick Jagger.

Jagger sits at a karaoke bar in character in a group as an insurance salesman while “over-served” patrons brutalize his songs. The group is impressed and says the guys are just like “Mick Jagger.” He angrily yells, “Which era Mick Jagger are we talking about?”

The Stones and Jagger have always, and sometimes awkwardly, adapted to the times to find success and remain relevant.

Ayotte is -5 in favorability because voters are wondering, “Which era Kelly Ayotte are we talking about?”

Is it AG era Ayotte? When she was amigos with John McCain and Lindsey Graham? When she couldn’t support Donald Trump? When she was Gorsuch confirmation whisperer? When she could support Trump, because somehow Biden/Harris were bigger threats than a Hillary Clinton Presidency? When despite her previously held personal beliefs, she now says she’ll support NH’s current abortion law?

Voters have a lot of conflicting information in front of them, and that tends to lead to distrust.

Now to Joyce Craig. I can’t believe after all the negative ads and subsequent focus on the negative aspects of her record in Manchester than she’s above water.

The biggest number in this Governor’s election is the 27% that aren’t sure about her. Whichever campaign can get to those voters will win this race.

Craig has been unable to establish a clear elevator pitch/bumper sticker message in this election. Why should an undecided voter cast a ballot for her?

Ayotte’s is pretty clear: Won’t Mass up NH. Stay on the Sununu path.

That’s good stuff. But, is it enough to overcome Kamala Harris defeating Donald Trump on top of the ticket by a current margin of 5-8% that could balloon to double-digits.

Chris Ryan is the host of New Hampshire Today on iHeart NH's news/talk stations from 6-9a weekdays. His "Trail Bites" column drops each Wednesday afternoon.


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