Ambassador Bolton thinks that Putin is playing a long game and that an invasion of Ukraine might not be imminent. Breaking up the NATO alliance might be Putin’s long-range goal rather than taking all or part of Ukraine.
In an interview with WGIR’s Chris Ryan, former UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor, John Bolton discusses the showdown in the Ukraine, as talks continue and there are reports that some Russian troops may have been withdrawn; shows how previous events might affect Putin’s strategy; evaluates the effectiveness of the sanctions on Russia which are being threatened; assesses the possibility of American engagement in Ukraine; and projects the future of US-Russian relations.
Ambassador Bolton thinks that we shouldn’t make too much of the removal of some Russian troops. After being deployed for about three months, John Bolton says that it would be normal to withdraw some of the 100,000 soldiers surrounding Ukraine, refit them, and move them back into position later.
In his opinion, Ambassador Bolton thinks that Putin is playing a long game and that an invasion of Ukraine might not be imminent. Breaking up the NATO alliance might be Putin’s long-range goal rather than taking all or part of Ukraine.
The Ambassador describes Putin’s maneuvers as brinkmanship, “He’s putting more and more pressure on, and he’s hoping that the NATO alliance splits.”
Vladimir Putin, according to John Bolton, truly believes that the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century. Putin has been trying to reestablish Russian dominance within the confines of the former Soviet Union.
Because he was able to add parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 without any penalties from the Bush or Obama Administrations, Ambassador Bolton surmises that Putin isn’t taking President Biden’s threats of sanctions very seriously. Our recent disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan also probably factors into Putin’s thinking.
Ambassador Bolton isn’t convinced that the sanctions which President Biden has threatened to impose will be effective. The sanctions are severe, but Bolton isn’t sure that all of the NATO countries will support them.
In addition, the sanctions only go into effect if Russia invades Ukraine. In the meantime, as the crisis continues the price of oil has risen to $90 a barrel, Russia is making a fortune on oil exports.
The Ambassador is convinced that President Biden’s comments or slips about Ukraine will probably play out. Biden said that no US troops will be involved, and he also hinted that Putin could take part of Ukraine.
It is Ambassador Bolton’s expectation that Putin will gobble up the Russian speaking areas of eastern Ukraine, the NATO countries will be relieved that it wasn’t a larger conflict, and sanctions probably won’t be imposed on Russia.
In the final segment of the interview, Ambassador Bolton describes the Russian strategy as a form of hybrid warfare which tries to undermine our democratic institutions by sowing confusion and animosity.
Vladimir Putin, a trained KGB agent met with President Biden for three and a half hours, John Bolton explains, “He can see what all of us can see on television, and he’s going to take advantage of that.”
Ambassador Bolton went on to point that the potential problem might come from Putin’s separate meetings with the leaders of NATO.
“What does President Macron of France say, what does Chancellor Scholz of Germany say today, what did President Biden say over the weekend? He’s looking for the cracks in what Biden insists is NATO unity; and, when he finds those cracks, Putin will drive wedges in there to try and split the alliance.”