By Chris Ryan
Three weeks from Tuesday is Election Day, and I honestly have no idea who will win, but I do know that Vice President Kamala Harris's momentum is in the rearview mirror.
This isn't a new revelation, rather it's one that actually started to come into a view a month ago when polling started to come in following her debate with former President Donald Trump on September 10th.
By any measure Harris won the debate with Trump yet, the batch of polls that followed the drubbing showed little to no movement in part because a few weeks prior to the debate on August 23rd, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race. His candidacy was taking more votes away from Trump that Harris.
About a month ago Kamala had found her ceiling, and that's what the polls of the last week are telling us.
My belief is that what happened from President Joe Biden leaving the race on July 21st to Labor Day is that Harris just simply regained the individuals who were likely to support Biden until it became clear that they couldn't in good conscience support an individual who was no longer capable of being President.
She did that in several ways. First, to quote Finn McMissile from Cars 2, "You never feel as alive, as when you survive nearly being dead." Democrats were convinced Biden had no chance, and it was over. Kamala gave them a chance to win. Second, the double-haters were thrilled at having an option that wasn't named Trump or Biden. Harris was fresh, new and exciting.
The biggest thing I've heard consistently over the last week from dems and indys about the VP is that, "She's ok."
If we're being honest, this has been her first bad week on the campaign trail, and it's coincided with the decision to remove the bubble wrap, which in itself is interesting, and suggests to me that Harris/Walz is well keenly aware of everything I've written in this space.
The main question that remains is how will Harris close, and turn the attention on Trump and away from her real and perceived weaknesses? Especially, since Trump has vowed not to return to the debate stage.
Trump is most vulnerable on the competence and his selfishness. They've focused on lot on the latter, but can do more on the former.
The other thing is she needs to provide a stark contrast that moves beyond the typical rhetoric about what each administration will look like for middle-class independent voters who only really care about how the next administration will benefit them.
Chris Ryan is the host of New Hampshire Today on iHeart NH's news/talk stations from 6-9a weekdays. His "Trail Bites" column (usually) drops each Wednesday afternoon.