By Chris Ryan
Believe it or not, there's only one competitive Governor's race in America, and it's right here in the Granite State.
Former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig are locked in statistical dead heat according to surveys from the University of New Hampshire and St. Anselm College.
External conditions will play a huge role in the outcome of this race. On the positive side for each candidate, Craig the beneficiary of Vice President Kamala Harris's 9.5% edge over former President Trump combining the two surveys. For Ayotte, most New Hampshire residents are pleased with the Republican leadership at the State House over the last eight years under Governor Chris Sununu.
There will also be continued attempts to brand the other candidate, and that will be aided by millions of dollars of outside money.
Those themes played out in their first debate held by the Nashua Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday morning.
Craig (and her allies) will focus on the issue of trust, which in my view is driving Ayotte's high negatives (-11.5% combining the two polls with 50% having an unfavorable view of her). Craig will specifically focus on Ayotte's past votes and statements on abortion, along with her shepherding Neil Gorsuch through the Senate nomination process and then playing a critical role in overturning Roe v Wade with the Dobbs decision.
Ayotte's focus on Craig will be on competence, taxes and immigration.
I'll take those one by one:
-The competence issue is nuanced. You need to tell voters who somehow still don't know who Joyce Craig is (27% in the St. A's poll didn't know enough about her to have an opinion) that 'Manchester is a disaster and it's her fault'. So far, she's gotten mixed results on that. The focus has been homelessness and drugs, which are major problems in blue and red cities/towns across America. There needs to be a specific policy or reason that Craig should be blamed for this which differentiates the plight of Manchester from that of Lewiston or Boston.
-Taxes is always a good one. GOP candidates for Governor for decades have said their democratic opponents will introduce a "broad-based" sales or income tax(dirty secret, we already have variations on both, go to Dunks, buy a coffee and tell me there's no sales tax). The dem says they won't and it's up to the voter to determine who they believe. Craig has however, attempted to raise taxes in Manchester and lift the tax cap, and New Hampshire has some big budget issues coming up in 2025, particularly on education funding.
-Immigration is a big winning issue for the GOP. NH residents don't really deal with much illegal immigration, and they want to keep it that way. If Craig isn't forceful about not allowing sanctuary cities and demanding federal answers, maybe even blaming Ayotte for the lack of comprehension immigration reform, this issue could lose her the race.
Chris Ryan is the host of New Hampshire Today on iHeart NH's news/talk stations from 6-9a weekdays. His "Trail Bites" column drops each Wednesday afternoon.